Sunday, April 22, 2012

Will robot drivers tailgate, too?


I would like to offer a few predictions based on my observations of traffic and information I read in a Washington Post article by Ashley Halsey III that was reprinted in the Columbus Dispatch.

The article describes advances in automotive technology - Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communication - that will allow motor vehicles to communicate with each other by radio to help avoid collisions and traffic congestion.  The article described how pile-ups might be avoided by automatically applying the brakes on a vehicle if a vehicle several car lengths ahead had to stop abruptly.  The article also described how V2V systems might suggest alternative routes if a driver were to come upon a congested area.

I predict that the unintended consequences of this technology will be that we will realize that most drivers need to be retrained.  I also predict that many drivers will report V2V systems as malfunctioning when they work as intended.  Either that, or V2V systems will have to be configured to inform drivers in a diplomatic manner that they are not driving safely.

The illustration that accompanied Halsey's article showed an example of the driver of one vehicle being notified that the vehicle behind was following too closely.  This made me wonder if the driver of the vehicle in the rear would be notified that he or she was following too closely.  If so, would the V2V system override the driver's operation and decelerate or brake?

My experience while driving in traffic has convinced me that I am the only driver on the road who understands the concept of an assured clear distance.  If V2V systems are programmed to alert drivers that they are following another vehicle too closely, or to automatically slow the vehicle down so as to create a clear and safe distance, vehicle owners will report the systems as malfunctioning.  They will not believe that they are following too closely, and will not understand why they are receiving such alerts or why their vehicles are slowing down when they do not want them to do so.

Discrepancy in the understanding of a clear and safe distance is probably one issue that will cause drivers to believe that V2V systems are malfunctioning when they are not.  There are bound to be other issues.  These issues will greatly add to the cost of V2V systems and greatly reduce their efficiency and effectiveness.  It will probably take another two generations before V2V systems can bring about any real reductions in collisions or fuel savings.  By that time, drivers will have learned to drive with V2V systems in their cars.  They may even have a better idea of what a clear and safe distance is than present drivers do.

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