I would like to offer a few predictions based
on my observations of traffic and information I read in a Washington Post article by Ashley Halsey III that was reprinted in the Columbus Dispatch.
The article describes advances in automotive
technology - Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communication - that will allow motor
vehicles to communicate with each other by radio to help avoid collisions and
traffic congestion. The article
described how pile-ups might be avoided by automatically applying the brakes on
a vehicle if a vehicle several car lengths ahead had to stop abruptly. The article also described how V2V systems
might suggest alternative routes if a driver were to come upon a congested
area.
I predict that the unintended consequences of
this technology will be that we will realize that most drivers need to be
retrained. I also predict that many
drivers will report V2V systems as malfunctioning when they work as
intended. Either that, or V2V systems
will have to be configured to inform drivers in a diplomatic manner that they
are not driving safely.
The illustration that accompanied Halsey's
article showed an example of the driver of one vehicle being notified that the
vehicle behind was following too closely.
This made me wonder if the driver of the vehicle in the rear would be
notified that he or she was following too closely. If so, would the V2V system override the
driver's operation and decelerate or brake?
My experience while driving in traffic has
convinced me that I am the only driver on the road who understands the concept
of an assured clear distance. If V2V
systems are programmed to alert drivers that they are following another vehicle
too closely, or to automatically slow the vehicle down so as to create a clear
and safe distance, vehicle owners will report the systems as
malfunctioning. They will not believe
that they are following too closely, and will not understand why they are
receiving such alerts or why their vehicles are slowing down when they do not
want them to do so.
Discrepancy in the understanding of a clear
and safe distance is probably one issue that will cause drivers to believe that
V2V systems are malfunctioning when they are not. There are bound to be other issues. These issues will greatly add to the cost of
V2V systems and greatly reduce their efficiency and effectiveness. It will probably take another two generations
before V2V systems can bring about any real reductions in collisions or fuel
savings. By that time, drivers will have
learned to drive with V2V systems in their cars. They may even have a better idea of what a
clear and safe distance is than present drivers do.
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